Article

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1 and runs through November 30, is forecast to be more active than usual, prompting heightened vigilance from emergency managers, insurers, and coastal communities. NOAA and other leading forecasters project a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of a quieter-than-average year.

Storm Numbers and Intensity

NOAA anticipates between 13 and 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher) this season. Of these, 6 to 10 are expected to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes—Category 3, 4, or 5 storms with winds of at least 111 mph. For context, an average season typically produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

Driving Factors Behind the Forecast

Several climate and oceanic conditions are fueling the above-average outlook:

• Warmer-than-Average Sea Surface Temperatures: The Atlantic is running hotter than its 30-year average, providing extra energy for storms to form and intensify. While not quite at record-breaking levels, these temperatures are a key ingredient for an active season.
• ENSO-Neutral Conditions: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, meaning upper-level winds over the Atlantic are neither especially disruptive nor particularly favorable for hurricane formation. This neutral state, expected to continue for several months, still allows for robust storm development.
• Weak Wind Shear: Weaker-than-average wind shear is forecast, which enables storms to organize and strengthen without being torn apart by high-altitude winds.
• Active West African Monsoon: Increased activity in the West African monsoon region, where many Atlantic hurricanes originate, is expected to send more tropical disturbances westward, seeding potential storms.

Technological and Forecasting Advances

NOAA has upgraded its Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) for 2025, aiming to improve predictions of storm tracks, intensity, and rapid intensification events by 5–7%. New technologies, including small aircraft drones, atmospheric profilers, and underwater gliders, are being deployed to gather real-time data and fill critical gaps, further enhancing forecast accuracy.

Historical Context and Recent Seasons

The 2024 season was notably severe, with 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, including the destructive Helene and Milton. That year saw over 400 fatalities and was the third costliest hurricane season on record, underscoring the potential for significant impacts even in years that are only slightly above average.

Implications for Insurers and Homeowners

Insurers are bracing for potentially increased claims and payouts, especially as the frequency and severity of natural disasters continue to rise. Average insured losses from natural catastrophes have climbed 90% over the past decade, now exceeding $33 billion annually. This trend, combined with rising premiums and the growing risk of rapid storm intensification near coastal population centers, highlights the importance of preparedness for both insurers and policyholders.

Preparedness and Risk Management

Experts urge communities and individuals to review emergency plans, understand evacuation zones, and strengthen property protections. The risk of rapid intensification—where a hurricane’s winds increase dramatically in a short period—remains a particular concern, as it can reduce the time available for last-minute preparations.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more active than average, with up to 19 named storms and as many as five major hurricanes possible. Warm ocean waters, neutral ENSO conditions, and favorable wind patterns are setting the stage for a potentially impactful season. With improved forecasting tools and heightened awareness, communities and insurers are urged to stay vigilant and prepared for whatever the season may bring. How does the corecasted 2024 hurricane season compare to 2025? Find out here.