Staffing cuts at NOAA and the National Weather Service have critically weakened the United States’ ability to forecast both hurricanes and inland severe weather events in 2025. While the Atlantic hurricane season has started quietly—only one named storm, Andrea, had formed by late June—this masks a much broader crisis. Over 1,000 tornadoes have already been reported this year, and severe convective storms are causing significant insured losses, already accounting for 41% of all insured losses in 2024. More than 1,000 NOAA employees have left since January, with over 55 of 122 forecast offices now facing crisis-level vacancies, especially in tornado-prone areas. As at least eight offices can no longer maintain 24/7 operations, real-time severe weather monitoring during peak storm seasons will experience significant setbacks.
The loss of critical infrastructure—including the dismantling of the weather balloon network, termination of key satellite data feeds, and the elimination of radar maintenance staff—has degraded the accuracy and timeliness of both hurricane and severe storm forecasts. This has immediate consequences for public safety and the insurance industry’s ability to assess and price risk. Technological progress is also threatened, as budget cuts jeopardize advanced warning systems and next-generation radar deployments that could improve lead times and forecasting precision. The degradation of public forecasting infrastructure now poses a comprehensive threat to the insurance sector, and public safety. As the 2025 season progresses toward its typical August-September hurricane peak while severe convective storm activity continues, the industry must adapt to a new reality where both named and non-named storm risks pose unprecedented challenges to traditional risk management approaches while some of the industry's most critical risk management tools have been deliberately weakened when needed most.
Limited Hurricane Activity Through June 2025
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has experienced its latest start since 2014, with only Tropical Storm Andrea forming on June 24, approximately 1,205 miles west of the Azores. The storm peaked at 40 mph before weakening to a post-tropical cyclone by June 25. Current Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) stands at just 0.2 units, more than 90% below average for this time of year.
The slow start masks serious concerns about the industry's ability to assess and price hurricane risk as traditional forecasting accuracy deteriorates as forecasting agencies maintain above-normal predictions. Colorado State University projects 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, representing approximately 125% of average activity. NOAA's official outlook remains at 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.
Severe Convective Storm Activity Surging
While hurricane activity remains below normal, severe convective storms have already generated exceptional activity and losses in 2025. Through May, over 1,000 tornadoes have been reported across the United States, spreading across nearly every state east of the Rockies. This tornado activity has contributed to at least eight separate billion-dollar insured loss events from severe convective storm activity, demonstrating that non-named storm risks may already exceed traditional hurricane impacts for 2025.
Hail damage alone affected over 567,000 homes in 2024 with a combined reconstruction cost value of $160 billion. Texas bore the brunt of the impact with over 180,000 homes affected, while approximately 72% of homes experiencing damaging hail were concentrated in Texas, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
Personnel Crisis
More than 1,000 NOAA employees have left since January 2025, including approximately 560 National Weather Service personnel. The National Hurricane Center faces significant staffing challenges with five vacancies, including four meteorologists. The proposed FY2026 budget calls for reducing NOAA funding by $1.5 billion, representing a 27% cut that would eliminate the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research entirely, shutting down the division responsible for coordinating nationwide weather and climate research.
The staffing crisis extends far beyond hurricane forecasting to critically impact severe weather operations nationwide. Nearly half (45%) of NWS forecast offices now operate with vacancies exceeding 20%, which experts define as crisis-level understaffing.
The most severely impacted offices include facilities in tornado-prone regions: Hanford, California and Goodland, Kansas both operate with 61.5% vacancy rates, while Nashville, Tennessee faces a 52% shortage and Little Rock, Arkansas has significant gaps. These shortages are particularly concerning given that these regions experience frequent severe weather events requiring immediate meteorological expertise.
Weather Balloon Network Collapse: The twice-daily balloon launch network has been systematically dismantled, with complete eliminations at Omaha, Nebraska, and Rapid City, South Dakota, plus reductions to once-daily launches at six additional locations in severe convective storm areas. Weather balloons provide irreplaceable atmospheric data that computer models depend on for accurate forecasting.
Catastrophic Satellite Data Loss: The Department of Defense has announded the termination of critical Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) data on 31 July, 2025 (originally slated for 30 June, 2025). SSMIS accounts for approximately 50% of all microwave data used in hurricane forecasting and is crucial for identifying storm centers, detecting rapid intensification events, and analyzing internal storm structure. This loss will severely impede hurricane forecasts affecting tens of millions of Americans along hurricane-prone shorelines.
Hurricane Hunter Program Degradation: Budget cuts have eliminated funding for NOAA's research network, reduced aircraft maintenance capacity, and created coordination challenges between NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter fleets.
Radar System Maintenance Vulnerabilities: Electronic technicians responsible for maintaining NEXRAD weather radar systems—the primary tool for detecting tornadoes and severe thunderstorms—have been eliminated through the cuts. These technicians are critical for maintaining the 159 weather radars comprising the nation's storm detection network. Radar failures during severe weather events could leave entire regions without the primary technological tool used to issue tornado warnings.
Historical Progress
Hurricane forecast accuracy has improved dramatically over recent decades, with track forecasts now 75% more accurate than in 1990. However, systematic reduction in observational data creates fundamental challenges for uncertainty quantification. Current average tornado warning lead times are estimated at 13-15 minutes, but understaffed offices face critical decision-making challenges during rapidly developing tornado situations.
The predictability of severe thunderstorms is inherently limited, with studies showing that supercell storm location predictability extends only 1-2 hours under current environmental uncertainty.
As weather forecast models are highly sensitive to initial conditions, any degradation in data quality negatively affects forecasting skill.
Advanced Warning Systems Under Threat
NOAA's Warn-on-Forecast System, which has demonstrated the ability to provide up to two hours of tornado warning lead time, faces potential disruption due to budget cuts and staffing reductions. In March 2025, this system successfully provided nearly two hours of advance warning for a long-track EF-3 tornado in Carter County, Missouri, likely saving lives.
Proposed cuts also threaten to slash research funding and stall deployment of next-generation Phased Array Radar (PAR) systems that could significantly improve severe weather forecasting. While current NEXRAD radar systems scan the atmosphere every four to six minutes, PAR systems can provide updates in under a minute, offering near-real-time storm development tracking. However, the effectiveness of advanced systems depends on adequate staffing and infrastructure support that is now at risk.
The degraded forecasting environment requires fundamental changes:
Diversified Forecasting: Companies must develop strategies incorporating multiple international models to compensate for reduced NOAA accuracy. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other international models may provide critical alternative perspectives.
Increased Uncertainty Margins: Risk models must incorporate larger uncertainty bands, particularly for rapid intensification events becoming more difficult to predict.
Enhanced Resilience Investment: Reduced forecast accuracy makes property hardening and resilience measures more critical, as companies cannot rely on extended warning times.
Industry Outlook: The remainder of the 2025 hurricane season presents unique challenges as NOAA cuts' full impact becomes apparent. The National Weather Service acknowledges needing to fill 126 "critical vacancies". Former NOAA officials warn that cuts will cause US forecasting capabilities to stagnate while other nations continue advancing, creating competitive disadvantages for US-based insurers who may increasingly rely on European weather models.
The 2025 weather forecasting crisis represents a comprehensive threat to the US property and casualty insurance industry that extends far beyond hurricane season to encompass the full spectrum of severe weather risks. While the quiet start to hurricane season provides deceptive calm, the ongoing severe convective storm activity and degraded forecasting capabilities create immediate and long-term challenges for risk assessment and management.
The systematic dismantling of NOAA's infrastructure has created unprecedented vulnerabilities precisely when severe weather activity is intensifying. With severe convective storms already generating 41% of all insured losses and over 1,000 tornadoes reported through May 2025, the industry faces the sobering reality that its most critical risk management tools—accurate weather forecasting across all hazards—have been deliberately weakened when needed most.
The staffing crisis at local National Weather Service offices, elimination of 24/7 operations during peak severe weather season, and degradation of critical observational networks create a perfect storm of forecasting challenges that impact both named and non-named storm risks. The concentration of staffing shortages in tornado-prone regions compounds the immediate safety and financial implications.
For the property and casualty industry, the era of continuously improving weather forecasts has ended across all hazard types, replaced by a period of potential stagnation or degradation in predictive capability. Companies that recognize this comprehensive shift and invest accordingly in alternative risk management approaches—including captive insurance solutions, private weather monitoring, and enhanced property hardening—will be best positioned to navigate the uncertain environment ahead.
The implications extend beyond immediate financial concerns to fundamental questions about the industry's ability to accurately price and manage weather-related risks in an environment of degraded public forecasting infrastructure. As the 2025 season progresses toward its typical August-September hurricane peak while severe convective storm activity continues, the industry must adapt to a new reality where both named and non-named storm risks pose unprecedented challenges to traditional risk management approaches while some of the industry's most critical risk management tools have been deliberately weakened when needed most.
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